Summary: Q2 2017
Complacency in investing rarely ends well. As strong as the last 12 months have been, it is important not to extrapolate and assume that such a trend will continue. In the cartoon below, that is clearly the “plan”.
I was fortunate enough a few months ago to participate in an investor conference at Brandes Investment Partners in San Diego. One of the presenters was from the Brandes Institute which focuses on Behavioral Finance and he shared what I thought was a comical example of the absurdity of extrapolation.
In 1977, at the time of Elvis Presley’s death, there were 170 Elvis impersonators worldwide. In 2000, there were 85,000 Elvis impersonators. At this rate of growth, statisticians predicted by 2019 Elvis impersonators would make up 1/3 of the world’s population.
Obviously that is not likely to happen, just as the strong equity market growth we’ve experienced the last 12 months on top of the prior 7 years is unlikely to continue indefinitely. Rest assured that we are not sitting on our hands counting on the trend to continue. Pockets of opportunity do still exist despite a strong run and we are positioning portfolios appropriately. We’ve mentioned some of those shifts already such as the increases to international equities and alternatives. We continue to evaluate the portfolio and look for additional opportunities where we believe we can improve the risk/reward characteristics in a tax efficient, cost effective manner.
Explore more information on the second quarter of 2017 by downloading the PDF below, or clicking these links:
Unless stated otherwise, any estimates or projections (including performance and risk) given in this presentation are intended to be forward-looking statements. Such estimates are subject to actual known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. The securities described within this presentation do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for client accounts. The reader should not assume that an investment in such securities was or will be profitable. Past performance does not indicate future results.